by
Michael S. Slocum, Ph.D.
Chief Scientist / TRIZ Scientist
The Inventioneering Company
Costa Mesa, CA
714.641.0677
slocum1946@aol.com
Abstract
Macro-level evolution as a function of time can be applied to four
descriptors to plot the maturity of a technology and thereby indicate the primary course
for maintaining technological supremacy. This pattern of design evolution is based on a
primary discovery of Altshuller: the evolution of a product or technology parallels the
micro-evolution of biological systems (the biological s-curve). Researching data relevant
to critical performance criteria of a technology, the number of inventions
in this technological field, the levels of the aforementioned inventions, and the profitability
of the primary resultant of the technology in question will allow interpolation and
correlation of data that will indicate the resultant location on the s-curve. The derived
location on the curve (pregnancy, birth, childhood, growth, maturity, or decline) will
indicate to the technology management what posture should be assumed: further investment
in the current technology, stasis, or various levels of research and development for a
technology that will replace the current technology, post decline. A careful study will
yield valuable information based on data and the statistical analysis of this data in
light of the Theory of Directed Evolution. This unique ability of the theory of innovative
problem solving demonstrates its versatility and power concerning design and development.
A reduction to practice of this theory will be demonstrated by the
presentation of a case study concerning the direction of hermetic technology. The methods
of obtaining the data, the methods of analysis, the raw and post analysis data, as well as
the s-curve plot will be presented. Management’s decisions as well the resultants of
those decisions will be presented (e.g., research and development conducted according to
various patterns of evolution: increased ideality, the application of limited additional
resources, etc.,…). The theories ability to assist in the generation of intellectual
property will be demonstrated by the presentation of a patentable technical evolution of
the current technology that resulted in new products that will increase capabilities as
well as market shares for the organization well into the 21st century.
1.0 Introduction
Evolution in stages is a macrolevel methodology aimed at the maturity
mapping of an existing technology. The stages of the S-curve are pregnancy, birth,
childhood, adolescence, maturity, and decline. Four curves plot the maturity of a
technology from different perspectives: performance, level of inventions, number of
inventions, and profitability, see Figure 1.0. The interpolation of these individual
curves gives the analyst an indication of the technologies location on the S-curve.
Figure 1.0: These four curves plotted versus time indicate location of
a technology in reference to the extrapolated polynomial fits of previously studied
technologies.
2.0 Summary
Hermetic sealing technology was selected as a prospect for maturity
mapping due to recent strategic losses in the market by a major aerospace manufacturer.
This once prominent technology comprised a large percentage of unit profits but had
declined in profitability for the last several years. Data were collected relevant to the
technology that would provide necessary information to create the required graphs
represented in figure 1.0.
Performance
Hermeticity was selected as the primary performance characteristic to
trend. Data concerning leak analysis was collected from literature and company
specifications for the last forty years. This data was plotted as Figure 2.0.
Figure 2.0: The reciprocal of the He leak rate has been plotted versus
time. A positive slop for the time period 1955 to 1996 is realized but the current
technology has leveled off at a theoretical minimum leak rate currently.
Figure 3.0: A second performance criterion was plotted for confirmation
and the performance level was found to peak at earlier design phases. Recent customer
specifications have dictated design changes that have shifted the system out of this
parameters optimum range. Further increases of this performance level will require new
technology.
Number of Inventions
The number of hermetic patents was collected from the company patent
database and these figures were collected and plotted, see Figure 4.0, with the insertion
of a second order polynomial fit. The trending indicates a peak of low level inventions in
1995 with a major decline 1n 1997. This would allude to the fact that variations and
deviations may be exhausted.
Figure 4.0
Level of Inventions
The associated aggregate level of inventiveness for the patents
disclosed in Figure 4.0 are plotted below as Figure 5.0:
Figure 5.0: The average levels of the inventions are represented as
aggregate scores indicative of the overall level of innovation in the hermetic field
during the time frames indicated.
Profitability
Profitability and bookings were investigated and plotted in the
following Figures 6.0 and 7.0:
Figure 6.0: Profitability is plotted with reference to time and
indicates a loss for the last five years (the total duration of the plot). This was highly
indicative of the current status of the existing hermetic technology.
Figure 7.0: Bookings for hermetic product for the last four
years is just as negative as the profitability indicators.
3.0 conclusions
The stage indicators clearly placed the existing hermetic sealing
technology in the declining stage. This is demonstrated by superimposing the predicted
curves from Figure 1.0 over the experimental data from section 2.0. In each case the
correlation suggests a declining status. A clear strategic implication was realized:
abandon the technology or invest in the next S-curve, (superseding hermetic sealing
technology). A decision was made to fund research into new technologies that would
increase the performance indicators, yield numerous high level patents, and regain long
term profitability.
The analysis performed allowed the research team to begin developing
hermetic sealing technologies that exceeded the maximum performance criterion of the
mature sealing technology. This coupled with the need to protect the technology by
creating high level patents with numerous claims defined the team objectives nicely.
4.0 Research
The current glass used for hermetic systems exhibits a tendency to
micro-fracture during processing. These fractures are contaminated with electrolytes from
the plating procedure. These electrolytes degrade the insulation resistance of the glass
(dielectric). The fractures also contribute in hermeticity failures. The scale of the
borosilicate glass was evaluated and a decision to reduce this scale from millimeter to
nanometer diameter conglomerates, see Figure 8.0, was made due to the previous published
works of the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute concerning nanophase materials. It was hoped
that the nanophase borosilicate would exhibit grain boundary sliding (does NOT
fracture) as opposed to grain boundary dislocating (fracturing), see Figure 9.0.
Figure 8.0
Figure 9.0
It is believed that this technology will provide the necessary
technological invigoration as preliminary test results are promising and in large
quantities the cost of the new material equals the cost of the current. The technologies
represented by these high level inventions are the precursor discoveries of a new s-curve
that is an overlapping curve (with reference to the existing mature curve), see Figure
10.0:
Figure 10.0: The new s-curve’s stage of inception is
technologically more mature than the previous curves technological peak.
The ability to map technological maturity has enabled the strategic
decision to invest in new technologies that will recapture market share and rapid
profitability. This process was far superior to previous attempts to supplant existing
technologies using trial and error development programs whose success was based on
unpredictable eureka moments.
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